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Residential · 2025 review

2025’s “Quantum Reality”: why the index is outrunning the story

Published January 2026 2 min read Source: URA

The headline number most reports show you is a blend. The useful question is which segment moved, and how much of the move is mix rather than price. This dashboard separates HDB and private — price, rent and yield — so the answer is visible instead of buried.

URA reported 3.3% price growth for 2025; this dashboard shows a 10% jump. That is not an error — it is a "bumper crop" of new launches and landed deals skewing what buyers actually pay.

  • The "new sale" gravity. URA's index uses stratified regression to smooth price changes so a surge in expensive launches doesn't falsely imply old condos rose. This dashboard tracks the actual capital outlay of today's buyers. New-sale PSF hit ~$2,800 — a 65% premium over resale PSF (~$1,700). New-launch units are smaller, but that size reduction doesn't offset the PSF premium. New-sale non-landed volume (ex-EC) surged 70% to 10,600+ units; including ECs and landed, 65% to 12,000+. Result: the "value" index is flat at +3.3%, but the cost of entry for an active buyer is up 10%.
  • The GCB proxy. Detached-house volumes hit a 3-year high, up 9% YoY, with an aggregated median of $10.6M. Drilling into detached homes in D10/11/20/21/23, 10,000+ sq ft built-up: 26 transactions at a $30.1M median in 2025 vs 21 at $26.5M in 2024.
  • Yield compression. Rental yields have compressed since 2H 2023 because sales prices outrun rents. Landed yields are sub-2%; non-landed ~2.5%. In prime districts like D15 and D6, returns lean almost entirely on capital appreciation. For yield, the data points to D2 (CBD) or D25 (Woodlands).

A technical note: the URA index measures "pure" price change with quality weighting; this dashboard shows what the market is actually transacting at today. It carries 2025 caveats — caveats are not mandatory to lodge, so it is not a full representation of the market. The UX slices by district, region, sale type, unit type and property type.

See the data behind this analysis

Compare new-sale PSF against resale PSF, and read the landed series separately. The gap between the two is the whole argument.

Open the live residential report